LME main commodity international prices (2025.1.13.~1.17.)

LME Non-Ferrous Metal Market Analysis

During the period from January 13 to 17, the LME non-ferrous metal market experienced volatility due to several factors, including expectations of China's economic recovery, supply chain issues, global policy changes, and fluctuations in the US dollar. Some metals saw price increases due to rising demand and declining inventories, while others faced downward pressure from supply growth and economic uncertainty.

1. Key Factors Affecting Market Trends

Signs of China's Economic Recovery

- Expectations of China's economic recovery and the government's infrastructure investment plans have driven demand for non-ferrous metals.

- Demand for industrial metals, particularly copper, has increased, positively influencing market sentiment.

- The improvement in China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has acted as a bullish factor for the metals market.

US Economic Policy and Strong Dollar

- Market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut had an impact; however, the strength of the US dollar limited the price increase of certain metals.

- Concerns over a potential economic slowdown in the US and uncertainties surrounding trade policies have dampened investor sentiment.

Supply Chain Issues and Geopolitical Risks

- The prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and the European Union's potential ban on Russian aluminum imports have heightened concerns over supply chains.

- Supply disruptions in key producing countries such as Indonesia and Myanmar have contributed to price increases.

Changes in Demand

- The continued growth of the electric vehicle and renewable energy industries has supported sustained demand for metals such as nickel and aluminum.

- However, demand in the construction and manufacturing sectors has remained stagnant.

2. Market Trend Summary

Factors Driving Prices Up:

- Expectations of China's economic recovery and infrastructure investment expansion.

- Decreasing inventories of key metals such as copper and nickel.

- Rising demand from emerging industries such as electric vehicles and artificial intelligence.

Factors Driving Prices Down:

- Reduced investment in raw materials due to a strong US dollar.

- Increased supply and forecasts of expanded production for some metals.

- Weakened investor sentiment due to economic slowdown concerns.

3. Outlook and Implications

The future direction of the LME market will depend on factors such as China's economic stimulus measures, US interest rate policies, and the stabilization of global supply chains.

- If China's economic recovery gains momentum, demand for non-ferrous metals is expected to rise further.

- A potential interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve could weaken the dollar and lead to higher metal prices.

- Continued monitoring of geopolitical risks and supply chain challenges remains essential.