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LME Monthly Average Price for September 2024 (Unit: USD/ton)

 - Cu / Copper (Cu) : 9,254.50

- Primary Aluminium (Al) : 2451.67

- Zinc (Zn) : 2,840.79

- Lead (Pb) : 2,007.36

- Nickel (Ni) : 16,117.86

- Tin (Sn) : 31,643.81

LME Price for the First Week of October 2024 (September 30 - October 4)

Forecast of LME Price Fluctuation Reasons

1. Expectation of China's Stimulus Measures

China, the world's largest consumer of metals, significantly impacts LME prices. Earlier this week, there was heightened expectation that the Chinese government would introduce additional stimulus measures, leading to an increase in metal prices. In particular, anticipated government support for the real estate market and infrastructure investment was reflected in the increased demand expectations for key non-ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum.

2. U.S. Economic Indicators and Interest Rate Policy

U.S. economic indicators also played an important role. The U.S. economic growth rate and employment data, announced at the end of September, exceeded market expectations, raising concerns about a possible interest rate hike. When interest rates rise, the value of the dollar increases, putting downward pressure on commodity prices. As a result, metal prices saw a decline on certain days. However, as Federal Reserve (Fed) officials hinted at the possibility of keeping rates unchanged rather than raising them, the decline moderated later in the week.

3. European Economic Situation and Energy Prices

In Europe, rising energy prices affected the production cost of metals. Particularly for energy-intensive metals like aluminum, rising production costs could have led to higher prices. However, due to concerns about a European economic slowdown combined with weakened metal demand, significant price increases were limited.

4. Supply Chain Issues and Inventory Changes

LME inventory data was also a significant factor in price fluctuations. In the first week of October, the decrease in inventories of key metals raised concerns about supply pressure. For certain metals such as nickel, a sharp decrease in inventory acted as a factor for price increases. On the other hand, some metals experienced a price decline due to rising inventories.

5. Impact of Dollar Exchange Rate

The strong dollar exerted downward pressure on metal prices this week. Given that commodities are traded in dollars, a stronger dollar makes these commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies, reducing demand. In particular, emerging markets with high metal demand experienced reduced purchasing power due to dollar strength, negatively affecting metal prices.

6. Geopolitical Risks

Geopolitical uncertainties also contributed to price fluctuations. Tensions in the Middle East led to a temporary rise in crude oil prices, and concerns over rising energy costs were reflected in metal prices. However, the market largely viewed this issue as having a short-term impact rather than a long-lasting one.

Between September 30 and October 4, 2024, LME price fluctuations were the result of several global factors working together. The expectation of China's stimulus measures, U.S. interest rate policies, energy costs in Europe, inventory changes, a strong dollar, and geopolitical risks all influenced metal prices, leading to increased price volatility.

It is essential to continue monitoring these global economic trends, as LME prices are highly sensitive to such factors.