During the last week of February 2025, the LME base metal market experienced an overall downward trend. Key economic indicators released throughout the week, along with global financial market movements, had a combined impact on base metal prices.
First, copper prices remained range-bound at the beginning of the week but turned downward toward the end. This was mainly due to disappointing economic data from the United States and growing concerns about a slowdown in China’s manufacturing sector. U.S. durable goods orders fell significantly short of market expectations, signaling weakening consumer sentiment and raising the possibility of slower demand for raw materials. Additionally, speculation emerged that China’s February manufacturing PMI could fall below the critical 50 mark, dampening expectations for a recovery in China’s base metal demand.
Aluminum prices also showed weakness throughout the week. The international distribution of Russian aluminum remained unstable, with a large volume flowing into the Asian market, raising concerns about oversupply. Moreover, the delayed economic recovery in major European countries weighed on aluminum demand in the construction and automotive sectors, contributing further to the price decline.
Nickel prices saw persistent weakness over the week. Indonesia’s ongoing nickel production expansion, combined with announcements of additional mine development and production increases at the end of February, exacerbated supply-side pressure. Meanwhile, demand recovery in the stainless steel sector remained sluggish. Key consumers, including China and Europe, experienced lower-than-expected demand across industries such as construction, home appliances, and automotive manufacturing. This combination of weak demand and rising supply pushed nickel prices lower.
Zinc and lead prices also trended downward, although their price volatility was relatively limited. Zinc prices were affected by stagnant demand for galvanized steel in the steel industry, while lead prices faced pressure from weakening battery demand and growing inventory concerns.
A common factor contributing to the overall decline in base metal prices this week was the strong U.S. dollar. Several Federal Reserve officials reiterated their commitment to controlling inflation, which dampened expectations for interest rate cuts and strengthened the dollar. Since base metals are traded in dollars, a stronger dollar typically exerts downward pressure on prices.
In summary, from February 24 to 28, 2025, the LME base metal market experienced a continued decline driven by disappointing global economic data, concerns over slowing growth in China, supply-demand imbalances, and a stronger dollar. In particular, nickel and aluminum, which faced significant supply-side pressures, recorded relatively sharper declines. Copper also followed the downward trend as hopes for demand recovery faded. Looking ahead to March, upcoming events such as China’s annual “Two Sessions” and the release of U.S. employment data are expected to be key factors influencing price trends in the next month.