Analysis of LME Non-Ferrous Metal Price Changes (February 10-14, 2025)

U.S. Tariff Announcement on Imports

On February 10, former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. This measure was set to take effect immediately, raising concerns about a potential global trade war. The U.S. relies on imports for approximately 45% of its copper consumption, and the tariff imposition sparked worries about rising costs and supply chain disruptions.

China’s Economic Trends and Investor Behavior

Meanwhile, signs of recovery in China’s real estate market emerged. The top 30 real estate developers in China increased their land investments by 186% year-over-year, and housing transactions in Hangzhou rose 5% from the previous month, marking the highest level since 2017. These indicators encouraged speculative buying among investors, contributing to the rise in non-ferrous metal prices.

Supply-Demand Imbalance in the Copper Market

In the copper market, physical buyers took the lead, restraining speculative demand from investors. This trend, coupled with the projected decline in Chinese demand, limited the rise in copper prices. In August 2024, copper prices exceeded $11,100 per ton but later dropped by about 20%, leading to increased inventory levels.

Uncertainty in the Aluminum Market

Following the U.S. tariff announcement, investors adopted a cautious stance due to concerns over a global trade war. As of February 10, the three-month aluminum contract on the LME rose by 0.2% to $2,633.5 per ton, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) recorded a 0.3% increase to 20,550 yuan per ton. However, the prevailing uncertainty led aluminum prices to fluctuate within a narrow range.

Outlook and Conclusion

Experts predict that the strengthening of U.S. protectionist policies and China’s economic slowdown will continue to impact the non-ferrous metal market. In particular, the copper market is expected to see a surplus of 194,000 tons in 2025, adding downward pressure on prices. (reuters.com) Moreover, Goldman Sachs revised its 2025 copper price forecast downward from $15,000 per ton to $10,100 per ton due to declining Chinese demand. (ft.com)

In summary, the fluctuations in LME non-ferrous metal prices from February 10 to 14, 2025, were driven by a combination of factors, including U.S. trade policy changes, China’s economic trends, and imbalances in supply and demand.