LME main commodity international prices (2025.2.3.~2.7.)

 Analysis of LME Base Metal Price Trends (February 3-7, 2025)

The London Metal Exchange (LME) base metal prices fluctuated during the week of February 3-7, 2025, due to various global factors. Below is an analysis of the key drivers behind these changes for each metal.

Aluminum:

Aluminum has emerged as one of the most promising base metals in 2025, primarily due to supply shortage concerns. China’s restrictions on smelting capacity have been a key factor in limiting global supply. The Chinese government has imposed caps on aluminum production, creating a structural supply constraint that has been pushing prices upward.

Copper:

Copper prices have been on an upward trend since the beginning of 2025, but investors remain cautious. The price increase has been supported by rising Chinese imports and declining inventories. However, macroeconomic uncertainties, including ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, have weighed on investor sentiment. Concerns over U.S. tariff policies have also had a negative impact on the copper market. 

Nickel:

Nickel prices, which saw a significant decline in 2024, are expected to recover gradually in 2025. This outlook is based on potential supply adjustments by major producing countries such as Indonesia. However, in the short term, concerns over excess supply could limit price recovery. 

Zinc:

While zinc prices are expected to rise in 2025, this increase is likely to be temporary. As mining production recovers, supply is projected to increase, which may cap further price gains. 

Summary of Key Factors:

1. China’s Production and Demand Trends:

As the world’s largest consumer of base metals, China’s economic policies and industrial activity have a direct impact on LME prices. The aluminum market, in particular, is affected by China’s production restrictions.

2. U.S. Trade Policies:

Tariff measures and trade policies from the U.S. are influencing global metal demand and supply chains, making them a key factor in price fluctuations—especially in the copper market.

3. Supply Chain and Inventory Changes:

For metals like nickel and zinc, supply adjustments by major producers and inventory levels are contributing to price volatility. Low inventory levels tend to push prices up, while oversupply exerts downward pressure.

In conclusion, the LME base metal prices in early February 2025 have been influenced by various factors, including global economic policies, production controls in key supplier countries, and inventory levels. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for predicting future price movements.